Failure to reach 185 these heavy crude refining centres could result in the need to discount the price of Canadian heavy 186 crude to place the volumes in markets. [...] While 213 North America and Asia see a growth in the regional supply gap, growth in Middle East heavy crude 214 oil production far surpasses the increase in regional heavy crude demand; thus the surplus of heavy 215 crude oil supply from the Middle East is expected to grow. [...] The netback in Edmonton is the USGC refining value less the cost of transportation 307 and any difference in refinery processing costs between the Canadian heavy crude oil and the 308 alternative heavy crude oil it competes against. [...] The price of a crude (or class of crudes) is determined by the ‘marginal 315 configuration’, which is the value of the crude in the configuration in which the last barrel of that crude 316 is processed. [...] Analysis of the drivers behind the marginal configurations enables us to forecast relative refining values and hence develop crude price differentials, based on our regional price forecasts for refined products, along with the capability to review the appropriateness of the marginal refining configuration in the context of the “supply/demand” balance aspects.
- Pages
- 46
- Published in
- Canada
