PREPARING FOR THE UNEXPECTED: - Assessing Two Key Macroeconomic Trends and Their Risks in the 2020s - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

They include the problems of incorporating that the important patterns and signals are and gauging greater complexity and adaptivity recognized? And how do they avoid the frequent in the models and forecasts of central banks, overreaction and volatility in financial markets governments, FIs and non-financial businesses. [...] account of the complexity of multiple domestic Yet, the range and depth of issues confronting factors in Ukraine, and of western nations’ reaction the public sector–and the array of high-profile and their capacity to adapt. [...] Savoie, points to the impact of the 5-6 times rise Fundamental changes in the public sector’s in the number of partisan advisors in the Prime approach are essential given the serious future Ministers’ and Cabinet ministers’ offices over risks of more uncertain outcomes and greater the past four decades. [...] The drivers of this new rate more stable inflation in the mid-2020s depends environment are the reversals of the structural crucially upon its credibility and scope to conduct economic forces driving disinflation, and the monetary policy on the basis of economic and fundamental shift from the macroeconomic policy financial conditions. [...] the rise in the CPI from its 8.1% peak in June 2022 to 2.8% in both the CPI overall and the CPI The impacts of more uncertain outcomes and excluding food and energy by February 2024 has greater unintended consequences are wide been meaningful and clear.