Modelling New Brunswick's future healthcare expenses and resource needs : Modélisation des dépenses futures en soins de santé et les besoins en ressources au Nouveau-Brunswick

The report is split into four sections as follows: Section 1. Development of a healthcare expenses projection model which can be used for each of the main service types as defined by CIHI: hospitals, other institutions, physicians, drugs, and other. All of the data used are publicly available from CIHI and Statistics Canada. Section 2. Development of a more detailed model to project hospital costs by health zone. This model adds costs and statistics from the annual reports of hospital services for the last five years. Section 3. An exploration of the effect of lifestyle and chronic health conditions on actual hospital costs by health zone. This is accomplished by creating separate risk profiles for lifestyle and chronic conditions and then combining them to produce an overall risk profile for each health zone. This is then compared with actual hospital statistics and expenses. Section 4. This section outlines a few ideas for further exploration to assist in the identifying of opportunities to improve the health of the people of New Brunswick and to explore ways of curtailing the continuing annual increases in healthcare costs. Appendix A. Detailed development of projections of the hospital costs for each health zone.