Spoiling, Seasonality, & State Measures

However, after signing the first Oslo Accords in 1993, Palestinian terrorism reached new heights and escalated through the mid-2000s.2 Observers attribute much of this violence to extremist factions Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) trying to derail the Peace Process and undercut the more moderate Palestinian Authority (PA). [...] This study is the first to empirically identify the main drivers of Palestinian terrorism by different categories of militant factions, from 1987 through 2004, when the second Intifada – a violent uprising against Israel – ended.6 It systematically assesses the level of Palestinian terrorist attacks according to three categories: attacks conducted by extremist factions (Hamas and the PIJ), moderat [...] Seasonality has been identified as a key factor influencing conflict dynamics in diverse contexts.39 Previous research on interstate conflicts suggest that violence escalates during the spring and summer months and declines during the fall and winter.40 Spring has long been considered the Afghan Taliban’s “fighting season,” largely because of better weather conditions and the end of the opium popp [...] A study on the distribution of Palestinian suicide bombings shows that the months of March-May tend to witness an uptick in those types of sophisticated and highly lethal attacks.46 This period in Israel also hosts three major Jewish holidays (Purim, Passover, and Shavuot) and two important civilian commemorations (Memorial Day and Israel’s Independence Day). [...] This study’s temporal range ends at the end of 2004 because Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics changed fundamentally following the death of PLO leader Yasser Arafat and the end of the Second Intifada.54 After the uprising ended, Israel’s government started a unilateral political process that led to the September 2005 evacuation of its military and civilian population from the Gaza Strip, usheri