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23 Nov 2021

First, has the TFW share of overall Canadian employment increased since 2000, and if so, does the increase primarily reflect growth in the number of TFWs entering Canada or an increase in the average duration of their work permits? Second, to what extent does the growth in TFW entries reflect work permits that are LMT exempt? Third, does the growth in TFW entries reflect an upskilling and increase. [...] Second, the sampling frame of the LFS includes temporary residents, so the TFWs counted in the numerator of the ratio should, in principle, also be counted in the denominator. [...] As the data in Figure 2 reveal, much of the growth, especially in the IMP, reflects an increase in the average duration of work permits issued. [...] Economic globalization and increasing migration flows in the 1990s, and the extension of eligibility to more low-skill occupations in the 2000s, broadened the mix of TFW occupations. [...] To estimate it more precisely, consider the simple Venn diagram in Figure 7, where the left set represents the TR population with a work permit on December 31 of year t, the right set represents PR entries in year t+1, and the union of the sets represents the subset of TRs with work permits in year t who transition to PR status in year t+1.

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31
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Canada