Development of an Integrated Modelling Framework to Guide Adaptive Management Implementation in Lake Erie

If we strive to establish predictive linkages between the magnitude and timing of the response of the sediments and different loading regimes, the study of the sediment diagenesis processes is essential in understanding the control of redox chemistry on the vertical profiles of biodegradable organic matter and P binding forms. [...] Our thesis is that the true diversity of a model ensemble is not solely determined from the complexity of the mathematics or the number of system components simulated, but also from the specification of the ecosystem functioning, as determined by the decisions made during the calibration and validation phase of the individual models, which ultimately shape the forecasts derived to guide the policy. [...] Regarding the model assessment, the typical criteria used are the degree of prediction errors (skill; the difference between predictions and observations); the relative goodness-of-fit for the different model endpoints (bias; differences in the model fit among flow, total and dissolved reactive phosphorus loading along with the nature of the error, i.e., over- or under-estimation); and the degree. [...] It is also important to note that the characterization of the processes associated with the nitrogen cycle has not been studied yet, even though the relative contribution of different nitrogen (N) species from the Maumee River watershed is likely to be one of the regulatory factors of the downstream water quality conditions; especially the composition of the phytoplankton community. [...] The latter model explained 62% on the observed variability of the Page | 22 annual cyanobacteria bloom CI data, but the standard error of the slope was 24% of the mean slope estimate, and the uncertainty factor was approximately equal to 1.95 (or simply put, the CI predictions derived by the model are correct within a factor of 2).