Reimagining Canada’s role in global energy security: Practical considerations for a low carbon trans

As the holder of the some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and gas, along with world class deposits of many critical minerals needed for the energy transition, Canada is well-positioned to meet the energy needs of our allies and partners. [...] The question is, how sustainable are the high prices for gas and coal, and to a lesser extent oil, in the face of stronger commitments at COP26 to wean the world off fossil fuels? The International Energy Agency, the US Energy Infor- mation Administration, and OPEC all say that global oil demand will continue to recover through to at least the end of 2022 at which time they expect that oil consump. [...] BP compared its Rapid scenario to the scenarios that other organizations produced and noted that the average growth of primary energy over the next 30 years assuming the Rapid scenario is towards the bottom end of the range of other published scenarios, includ- ing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2°C scenario and is also near the low end of other scenarios in terms of carbon e. [...] Much of the growth in natural gas demand in the developing economies is in the industrial/manufacturing and power sectors (with coal switching to gas) whereas in the US, Europe, and Japan, de- JEFF KUCHARSKI AND HEATHER EXNER-PIROT | MARCH 2022 21 mand is expected to decline in the building and power sectors with increased electrification. [...] The UK, Canada, the US, and several other countries signed on to the agree- ment, which promises to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022, except in limited and clearly defined circumstances that are consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement.”9 Judging by the careful wording, it would appear that.