Labour Pains - June 3, 2022 Canadian Economics Association, Ottawa, ON

3 Labour markets are tight… Canada’s labour market tightness Vacancies per unemployed, quarterly data, nsa 0.9 0.8 0.7 * 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 * * 0.1 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab calculations using Statistics Canada JVWS, SEPH, LFS 4 * imputed data points …especially in Quebec and BC. [...] & food services Agriculture -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab, using Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 6 Pandemic shifted out Beveridge curves Canada U. [...] Vacancy and unemployment rates, % nsa %, sa Recovery Pandemic shock Pandemic shock Oil price shock Sources: Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab; Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 Inflation at a 31-year high… CPI inflation Year-over-year, % change 7% 6.8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Total CPI Target range Source: Statistics Canada Canadian Chamber of Commerce B. [...] 11 Firms want to hire, but are having trouble Canada job vacancies Business obstacles expected, next three months Thousands, monthly % of respondents, by labour obstacle 1,200 39% 37% 37% 35% 35% 35% 1,000 33%30% 30% 28% 28% 26% 24% 25%800 22% 600 400 200 Recruiting skilled employees Shortage of labour force Retaining skilled employees Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 0 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21. [...] Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab 16 An economist this summer 17 Stephen Tapp Chief Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce STapp@Chamber.ca Chamber.ca @CdnChamberofCom 18 mailto:STapp@Chamber.ca Labour Pains Labour market context Canada’s economy has done better than initially feared Labour markets are tight… …especially in Quebec and BC.