The Many Shades of Canadian Deterrence

Table of Contents Introduction Nuclear Deterrence Conventional Deterrence Cyber-Deterrence Deterrence and the Information Environment Space Deterrence Deterrence and Emerging Technologies About the Author Canadian Global Affairs Institute Introduction Deterrence is experiencing a renaissance. Russia’s war against Ukraine has jolted NATO out of its decades-long stupor. China’s diplomatic, economic and military prodding of the Pacific region, along with its advancements in emerging and disruptive technologies in hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic platforms, has renewed talk of great-power competition and a global arms race. The nuclear weapons taboo is dissolving, with even pacifist nations like Japan exploring their use and utility. And the risk of crisis and conflict in space and cyber-space have led to calls to extend deterrence to these emerging domains of warfare. Some observers conclude that we’re in the midst of a Cold War redux. The attention placed on deterrence is welcome. When done right, deterrence entails an absence of conflict. In practice, it rests on using a combination of threats, like the sting of retaliation and/or the hindrance of defence and denial, to convince an adversary to forgo an unwanted action. Related concepts like compellence and coercion can influence an adversary in other ways, too, including through the promise of incentives, the pain of economic exclusion and the reputational cost of delegitimization. Drawing deterrence parallels between today and the Cold War is tempting. After all, the West won that conflict without engaging directly with its primary adversary, the Soviet Union, for nearly 50 years. Deterrence played a large part in our eventual success. However, brushing off Cold War deterrence concepts for renewed application to contemporary conflict will only get us so far. Deterrence theory and practice have evolved a great deal since then. Some of the dynamics currently in play, including, cyber- and grey-zone conflict and the nexus between emerging technologies and coercion weren’t evident during the Cold War. But even the challenges that did exist then and continue apace today, like nuclear proliferation, information warfare and conflict in outer space, have evolved in ways that warrant a more modern approach to deterrence. The sum of these developments is that deterrence theory and practice have progressed in dramatic ways over the past several decades. Scholars have advanced novel deterrence concepts, theories and frameworks beyond the traditional notion of kinetic punishment, military retaliation and strategic weapons, including in areas like denial, delegitimization and resilience. Innovations in cross-domain deterrence, which bridges the digital-physical divide, along with lessons for managing international relations drawn from criminal deterrence and deterring terrorism and insurgency, have likewise been made