It appears to assume that cash incentives, financial assistance to vehicle manufacturers and mandating the sale of electric vehicles while banning the sale of internal-combustion engine vehicles will somehow achieve these targets. [...] That produces a vehicle-sale forecast in 2030 of only 310,000 EVs (about 95,000 from Tesla, 150,000 from GM, Ford and Stellantis and 65,000 from more than 10 other companies.) Assuming Canada gets its historical 2-percent share of global vehicle sales, the figure for Tesla sales in Canada is 2 percent of the assumed global Tesla 2030 sales of five million EVs. [...] The freight truck result is similar, with EV sales hitting only 22 percent of 2030 sales, accounting for only 10 percent of the fleet. [...] Brian Livingston is an executive fellow at the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary. [...] A version of the Memo first appeared in the Financial Post.
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