F - Indirect effects of climate- and C SPR overfishing-induced - zooplankton changes on

2) Zooplankton effects on cod and sprat recruitment 3) A trophic cascade & feedback-loops Data & Methods Data: Methods: Zooplankton Regime shift analysis - Latvian Fish Resources Agency - Sequential Regime - Spring Shift Detection - Judai-Net (160µm) Method (Rodionov Phytoplankton 2004) - Biomass Statistical modelling - ICES Database - Linear Models Hydrography - Generalized Additive - Temperature. [...] acuspes Temperature Salinity Pseudocalanus acuspes & Hydro-Climate Results of GA-Modelling *** p < 0.001 Predictors GCV R2 (%) Salinity*** 0.313 63.0 Salinity***, NAO 0.311 72.0 GCV – measure of model quality (the lower the better) Acartia spp. [...] ! ”Regime-shift” between key-species 1000 800 C SPR 600 400 200 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 PS 2500AC 2000 1500 1000 - Salinity + Temperature 500 Climate/Hydrography 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 PS – Pseudocalanus acuspes, AC – Acartia spp., C – Cod, SPR - Sprat Sprat Cod Cod recruitment & Hydro-Climate & P. [...] acuspes** 0.205 85.8, NAO ***p < 0.001 ** p < 0.01 * P < 0.05 Sprat recruitment & Hydro-Climate & Acartia spp. [...] & Hydro-Climate & Bottom-up control ** p < 0.01 * P < 0.05 Results of GA-Modelling Predictors GCV R2 (%) Temperature*, Dinoflagellates** 0.592 80.4 Temperature, Dinoflagellates, NAO 0.614 83.9 Summary Climate-induced changes in salinity and temperature have caused a Regime-shift in the pelagic Baltic ecosystem on all trophic levels Regime-shift from salinity-controlled (P.