mates of global incidence of tuberculosis disease from 2021 (Appendix 1, Table S2).20,21 We used estimates from 2021 as this Methods was the final census year analyzed, and data on the incidence of tuberculosis disease before the year 2000 are considered unreli- We used modelled estimates of the annual risk of tuberculosis able.22 We calculated year of birth as the census year minus infection — th. [...] For each of the 200 sampled log-scale trends of annual risk of Annual risk of infection data infection, we generated probabilities of tuberculosis infection for We adapted a previously published approach to obtain country- each combination of country, birth year and migration year specific estimates for the annual risk of tuberculosis infection. [...] Since precise calendar dates of immigration were impact of HIV infection in each country.14 We used the δ method unknown, we assumed that the average date of arrival for each to propagate uncertainty and estimate variance around esti- cohort was the midpoint of the calendar year, resulting in the mates of annual risk of infection.19 We excluded countries from estimated risk of infection during the. [...] Using our estimates of the probability of tuberculo- Estimated prevalence of tuberculosis infection sis infection, we estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis We included 168 countries of origin in our analyses of tubercu- infection for each census year overall, for each of these sub- losis infection prevalence, and excluded 50 countries groups and by time since immigration. [...] (95% UI) Incidence of Prevalence Prevalence of TB infections of people to Prevalence of TB infections of people to test TB in country of TB infection of TB to identify test to detect of TB infection Prevalence to identify to detect of origin acquired infection to detect 1 person acquired in of TB infection to detect 1 person per 100 000 in previous overall, % 1 person infected infected in previous.
- Pages
- 9
- Published in
- Canada
