QUANTUM THREAT TIMELINE REPORT 2023 - Dr. Michele Mosca Dr. Marco Piani

8 | P a g e Q U A N T U M T H R E A T T I M E L I N E R E P O R T 2 0 2 3 • TSHELF-LIFE (shelf-life time): the number of years the information should be protected by the cyber-system; • TMIGRATION (migration time): the number of years needed to migrate the system properly Figure 1 The timeline for the emergence of quantum and safely to a quantum-safe solution; computers capable of threatening cybe. [...] 20 | P a g e Q U A N T U M T H R E A T T I M E L I N E R E P O R T 2 0 2 3 Figure 7 Heatmap and percentages for the distribution of the likelihood estimates of the 2023 survey, displaying the diversity in the opinion of the experts. [...] For example, even in a ‘pessimistic’ likelihood estimates as the interpretation of responses as the lowest compatible probability for lowest compatible a given likelihood range, the average probability associated by the probability for a given above-described analysis to the disruptive quantum threat is already likelihood range, the ~17% in the next 10 years and growing quickly in the timeframes a. [...] On the other hand, some component of the “pessimistic” signal in the top graphs of Figure 10 and Figure 11 is likely to be spurious and due to changes in the composition of our pool of respondents; this is suggested by the fact that the bottom plots, for the stable subset of respondents, see a smaller “delay”, particularly in the long term. [...] If one can hit a The challenges the world economy and the financial markets are commercially-relevant facing in a phase of recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, application in the next few particularly with high interest rates, play a role both in the actual years, the investment in dynamics of investments and in the expectations of our respondents quantum computing can about the level of investme.