Update of economic and fiscal projections 2015 : Economic and fiscal projections 2015

These included the very weak performance of the U. S. economy in the first quarter, as well as elevated global economic uncertainty due to the near exit of Greece from the euro area and concerns about economic prospects in China. [...] In the latest survey, which was conducted in October, private sector economists expect Canadian real GDP growth to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2015 from 2.4 per cent growth recorded in 2014, reflecting the contraction in output in the first half of this year (Chart 1.3). [...] However, given the renewed fall in crude oil prices in the third quarter, energy-related investment will likely continue to act as a drag on output growth in the second half of 2015 and into 2016, albeit to a lesser extent than in the first half of this year. [...] In the survey, private sector economists expect Canadian real GDP growth to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2015 from 2.4 per cent growth recorded in 2014, reflecting the contraction in output in the first half of this year (Table 2.1). [...] This has lowered the projected level of nominal GDP in the October survey by $15 billion in 2015 and by $32 billion, on average, over the 2016 to 2019 period, compared to the outlook in Budget 2015.