Planning for the Future

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Table of Contents

• 1.0 Introduction 10
• 2.0 Integration of Climate Adaptation Planning and the IWMP Process 16
• 3.0 Preplanning 21
• 4.0 Gather Information 24
• 5.0 Plan Drafting 41
• 6.0 Plan Reviewand Plan Approval 44
• 7.0 Implement 46
• References 52
• Appendix A. Example of Written Content to Include in the Terms of Reference 54
• Appendix B. Summary of Climate Projections for the Province of Manitoba 55
• Appendix C. The Climate Atlas of Canada for Accessing and Interpreting Climate Data 57
• Appendix D. Suggested Climate Variables Relevant to Watershed Management 60
• Appendix E. A General List of Hazards, Impacts, and Consequences 64
• Appendix F. Menu of Climate-Resilient Actions 68
• Appendix G. Suggested Questions for Engagement With Watershed Residents 77
• Appendix H. Climate Risk Matrix Exercise 79
• Appendix I. Build an Initial List of Climate-Resilient Actions 83
• Appendix J. Evaluation of Climate-Resilient Actions 85
• Appendix K. Resources 90
• Figure 1. Manitoba’s Integrated Watershed Management Plan Process 17
• Figure 2. The adaptation planning process 19
• Figure 3. The adaptation entry points identified in Manitoba’s IWMP process 20
• Figure C1. Example of mapping feature and climate projections from the Climate Atlas of Canada, with selection options for the amount of climate change (less or more) and the time period (recent past, 2021–2050, and 2051–2080) 58
• Figure E1. An example of a mapping exercise, with an example of spring flooding as the climate hazard, and the associated impacts and consequences 66
• Figure H1. Example of risk matrix for spring flooding 81
• Figure H2. Risk matrix 82
• Table 1. Example of an existing program that, when viewed through a climate adaptation planning lens, may also increase the resilience of the watershed, taking water retention from a traditional action to a climate-resilient action 13
• Table 2. Key questions and possible answers when reviewing and interpreting climate data 25
• Table 3. Key questions and possible answers when considering hazards 28
• Table 4. Key questions and possible answers to identify impacts and consequences with the “if, then” approach 29
• Table 5. Key questions and possible answers to apply a future lens to traditional actions 32
• Table 6. Example of categorized climate-resilient actions for prioritized climate risks 37
• Table B1. How different variables are projected to change under low- (less climate change) and high- (more climate change) carbon scenarios climate change for cities and towns in Manitoba 56
• Table C1. An example of the mean temperature variable with data from the Climate Atlas of Canada, comparing the averages for the recent past (1976–2005) with the near-term time-period (up to 2050) in a worst-case emissions scenario (RCP8.5) 59
• Table D1. Fillable table with select variables that are key to watershed management and can be used to gather information for the watershed 60
• Table E1. Examples of climate hazards 64
• Table E2. List of hazards, impacts, and consequences that might be a useful reference for the project management team and watershed planner 65
• Table E3. Fillable table to record hazards and the impacts and consequences of each 67
• Table H1. Potential definitions for likelihood 79
• Table H2. Potential definitions for severity of consequences 80
• Table I1. Identify potential climate-resilient actions for each hazard 84
• Table J1. A fillable table to evaluate potential climate-resilient actions to include in the Implementation Plan section of the IWMP. 88