The resulting K-recession would A comparison of the risk factors using the disproportionately impact low- and lower- GRAFTi framework of the recession of the early income households that depend on cash to 1980s and today highlights the similarities of cover the rising expenses of rent or mortgage interstate conflict, weapons of mass destruction, payments, as well as higher cost of goods and oil pr. [...] A K-shaped recession may actually be profitable for • The risk factors of interstate conflict, owners of assets and capital, soft for the weapons of mass destruction, oil older middle class, and due to inflation, price shock and inflation that laid the extremely challenging for the segment of foundation for the 1980s recession are in the population that is dependent upon place, foreshadowing a 202. [...] In the second quarter of 2023, the income gap—defined as the gap in the share of disposable income between households in the top 20% and bottom 40% of the income distribution was 45.1%, while the wealth gap was 65.1% based upon the percentage of wealth owned by the top 20% of Canadians minus the wealth owned by the bottom 40% of Canadians.i i The Daily — Distributions of household economic account. [...] the holders of capital, and that cannot stay Estimates of the increased economic value of AI ahead of the technology adoption curve, will adoption vary widely between 2 and 15 trillion bear the majority of the downside of the coming USD. [...] Opportunity springs from the adoption of new applications and content to meet people’s technologies, but the implications of that needs adoption will depend upon the diversity of • Participation – Meaning Canadians have adoption and the ability of Canada to close the a range of digital skills from foundational digital adoption gap.
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Table of Contents
- Structure Bookmarks -1
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
- 1. K-RECESSION 2024: RISK FACTOR COMPARISON WITH THE 1980S 6
- 2. GRAFT RISK FACTOR COMPARISON 1980S TO 2024 7
- 3. SIMILARITIES BETWEEN 1980S AND 2024 8
- 4. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1980S AND TODAY 15
- The K-recession will be accelerated by the negative implications of the adoption of AI to lower-income Canadians, which include: 1) AI automation is predicted to replace jobs in the manufacturing, retail, and transportation industry where lower quartile income Canadians are employed; 2) Adoption of AI may widen the technology skill gap for lower quartile income Canadians in that they may not have the resources to access the training to transition to AI-integrated roles; and 3) The benefits of AI are already 30
- 5. 2024 IMPLICATIONS OF A K-RECESSION 30
- 6. PREPARE AND RESPOND 32
- 7. CONCLUSION 32
- APPENDIX – GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS FRAMEWORK (GRAFT) 34