Negotiations with the Venezuelan government and the skillful leveraging of economic sanctions persuaded the regime to permit the opposition primary in October. [...] The simplest way for the regime to derail the election would be to disqualify González, leading the opposition to boycott or collectively rally around one of the other ten candidates that qualified to compete. [...] That presents the State Department with a challenge, to evaluate the quality of the election and effectively communicate its findings internationally and inside Venezuela. [...] That would also permit the opposition and independent observers to conduct so-called quick counts – statistical samples of actual results from around the country – that could reveal the likely winner before the regime has an opportunity to lie about vote tallies or discredit the process. [...] For that reason, defenders of Venezuela’s democracy face another crucial challenge in the run-up and aftermath of the election: convincing Maduro, his closest allies, and the leadership of the armed forces that a democratic transition would not leave them behind bars for public corruption and human rights abuses.
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Table of Contents
- 1 MARK FEIERSTEIN 2
- LATIN AMERICA PROGRAM 2
- Less than a month before the presidential election in Venezuela a growing sense of hope about the outcome is breaking through the usual skepticism about the countrys political prospects. 2
- 2 HOW TO STOP A COUP 3
- JULY 2024 3
- 3 MARK FEIERSTEIN 4
- LATIN AMERICA PROGRAM 4
- The United States and other 4
- 4 HOW TO STOP A COUP 5
- JULY 2024 5
- The US policy levers that helped preserve democracy in Brazil 5
- 5 MARK FEIERSTEIN 6
- LATIN AMERICA PROGRAM 6
- 6 HOW TO STOP A COUP 7
- JULY 2024 7
- González is a mild-mannered 7
- No matter what the vote count will be tense. The opposition plans to deploy a poll watcher to nearly every polling site despite regime efforts to impede oversight. 7
- 7 MARK FEIERSTEIN 8
- LATIN AMERICA PROGRAM 8
- Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 9
- Latin America Program 9
- One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 9
- 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW 9
- Washington DC 20004-3027 9
- LATAMProg 9
- Wilson Center Latin American Program 9
