A Markov model of urban evolution: Neighborhood change as a

Building on neighborhood change research and complexity theories of cities, we address three research questions: 1) What are the main types of neighborhoods in the city and how are they organized, both spatially and hierarchically? 2) What are the main patterns of neighborhood change over time, and how are they inflected by space? 3) How are these trends likely to unfold in the future, and how mig. [...] This led to a long-term economic decline of the suburban zone 206 relative to the gentrifying core, marked by a hollowing out of middle class 207 neighborhoods in the former and a growth of young professional and “creative class” 208 enclaves in the latter [44, 45]. [...] More 677 specifically, if in the non-counterfactual case the model predicts a given neighborhood 678 type will constitute 10% of the total tracts nearby the target type, and in the 679 counterfactual case the distribution is greater than 11% or less than 9%, we color the 680 appropriate box in the matrix: blue (at least 1% increase) and red (at least 1% 681 decrease). [...] Primarily, we show the 715 potential of mixed clustering methods for socio-spatial neighborhood change research, 716 and the analytical utility of exploiting the formal features of Markov chains in general 717 and spatial Markov chains in particular. [...] One hundred years of land values in Chicago: the relationship of the growth of Chicago to the rise of its land values, 1830-1933.