Ten-Years Out: Navigating the Information Gap between El Niño & Climate Change

Goddard_talk.ppt Ten-Years Out: Navigating the Information Gap between El Niño & Climate Change Lisa Goddard Climate Variability & Change Globally Annual Mean Temperature CC Hiatus? Temperature 65% Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying “climate change” component. [...] 2009, BAMS) Regional Scale Decadal Predictions from Climate Change Projections? Western Africa : Annual-Mean Temperature Southern Africa : Annual-Mean Temperature Climate Change Projections cannot deliver predictions of decadal variability Decadal to Multi-decadal Climate Variability “Natural” Slowly-Varying Climate * Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO or AMV) * Pacific Decadal Oscillation. [...] Decadal to Multi-decadal Climate Variability “Natural” Slowly-Varying Climate * Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO or AMV) * Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO or PDV) à What are these decadal phenomena? à How do they effect regional climate? à What is the basis for prediction? * Experimental Prediction of Decadal Variability PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) The principal mode in the Pacific  . [...] Decadal to Multi-decadal Climate Variability “Natural” Slowly-Varying Climate * Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO or AMV) * Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO or PDV) à What are these decadal phenomena? à How do they effect regional climate? à What is the basis for prediction? * Experimental Prediction of Decadal Variability Global Climate Change Projections ot that forcing are n ge climat e. [...] Dyn.) Evaluation of Malaria Interventions in East Africa Increased Drought Frequency in East Africa àI ncreased frequency of drought in East Africa is mainly the result of multi-decadal climate variability Observed in the Pacific à The recent shift in East African rainfall is part of a global climate shift that occurred in 1998-99 Model ! (Lyon et al.