KENNAN CABLE - In Russia’s Shadow: China’s Rising Security Presence in Central Asia

According to the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database and additional Russia, Still Dominant data collected by the authors, Russia has sold $3.8 billion worth of arms to Central Asia since In spite of recent Chinese gains, Russia remains the 1991, with the lion’s share, $2.3 billion, going to dominant external security partner for the region Kazakhstan. [...] In 2014, the their respective regional organizations: the SCO Ministry of Public Security (MPS) founded the China in the case of China and the CSTO and CIS National Institute for SCO International Exchange (Commonwealth of Independent States) in the case and Judicial Cooperation in Shanghai, an institute of Russia. [...] In 2017, Russia held its first exercise with Uzbekistan in 12 years at the Forish Range in Finally, there is the issue of joint-training initiatives Jizzakh, the site of the two countries’ only previous to improve the interoperability of forces in the bilateral exercise in 2005.40 region. [...] The first, called “2007 Anti-Terror Issyk-Kul,” took place in late May on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul One important trend in recent years has been the and brought together SCO soldiers as well as launch of “Cooperation 2019,” a series of drills officials from the CSTO and representatives of allowing China to enhance the interoperability the security agencies and special services of each of local. [...] For decades, Russia has positioned itself as the dominant security guarantor in Central Asia, In the short term, Russia and China share core but patterns indicate that as China continues to strategies in the region and they are unlikely to react rise, so will its hard power interests in the region.