Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7 - Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko March 7, 3:00 PM EST

Key Takeaways • Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area on the west and the Brovary area on the east; • Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv; • Russian troops are likely attem. [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 6 that the Russians have started accumulating the resources they would need to storm the capital.1 The General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces retain a coherent defense of the city at this time.2 Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro Russian forces have continued their efforts to secure control of the town of Irpin, approximately. [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 7 that the Russians have denied the inhabitants of Irpin water, heating, and food supplies for three days and are not allowing them to leave.6 Social media users reported damage from Russian rocket attacks on civilian infrastructure in Irpin on March 7.7 The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian elements under the command of Chechen leader. [...] Subordinate supporting effort — Chernihiv axis The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 7 that Russian forces are concentrating elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army near the southern outskirts of Chernihiv and intend to encircle and presumably seize the town.9 It had previously reported its assessment that Russian troops intend to seize Chernihiv city on March 6.10 Social media reports fro. [...] Russian troops are conducting intense shelling of Mykolayiv and nearby towns, likely to prepare for a ground assault on the city.29 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a Russian BTG crossed the Inhul River at Kashpero-Mykolaivka, roughly 50 kilometers north of Mykolayiv, on March 6.30 This movement is consistent with expected Russian efforts to reach crossings of the Southern Bug north of My.