Prepared for Environmental Defence Canada

In the event of the potential closure of Line 5, the following changes to the crude oil logistics system serving refineries in Ontario and Quebec would enable continued reliable supply of crude oil to these refineries from the same sources that the refineries are currently processing: Expansion of Enbridge Energy’s Line 78 to the ultimate design capacity of this pipeline, which is 800,000 bd on. [...] 2.5 Alternatives to the Mainline System for Crude Oil Supply to Ontario and Quebec Refineries There are three existing alternatives to the Enbridge Mainline System that can physically deliver crude oil to Ontario and Quebec refineries: Rail: The Imperial Oil refinery in Nanticoke, the Suncor refinery in Montreal and the Valero refinery in Lévis all have rail car unloading facilities with a combi. [...] From 2016 through 2019, 71% to 79% of the total volume shipped to Sarnia consisted of crude oil and NGLs from Canada, with the remaining 21% to 29% of the total consisting of crude oil produced in the US (see Figure 8). [...] Accordingly, this assessment of the impact of a potential closure of Line 5 on Ontario and Quebec refineries starts with an evaluation of the potential to maintain deliveries via the Mainline System by increasing flows in Line 78, the remaining portion of the Mainline System that delivers crude oil to Sarnia. [...] With the reversal of Line 9 at the end of 2015 flows on the Portland to Montreal pipeline have slowed almost to a complete standstill.33 Nevertheless, the pipeline remains operational, and the pipeline plus associated tanker unloading facility in Portland and associated tankage in Portland and Montreal that comprise the system could be reactivated for crude oil deliveries to Montreal.