2. Emissions of short-lived climate forcers in an Arctic context Introduction Defining scenarios

data and projections used in the assessment, as well as on the Two elements that appear visibly diff erent in the updated evolution and comparison of fossil fuel CO2 emissions to ECLIPSE v6b dataset are the distribution of residential SSPs developed for the sixth cycle of the IPCC report (see, for (heating) emissions and the fl aring of associated gas. [...] would lead to approximately 15% and 11–19% higher emissions Comparison with the current baseline scenario (CLE), indicates of BC and SO2, respectively, towards the end of the period, the effect of subsequent legislative changes and the adoption of compared with the baseline (CLE). [...] SO2 emissions are dominated by introduction and effective enforcement of reduction measures combustion in ‘industry’ and ‘energy’ production, with 95% in power plants and industry in China and the USA, and, for and 83% in the Arctic Council Member states and Observer the coming decades, also in India. [...] confirmed the results of the IIASA-GAINS model, and the The USA estimate for 2015 is calibrated to the average national trajectory in the ECLIPSE v6b emissions dataset. [...] (2021) developed and used in this assessment are deemed to be robust assessed the uncertainty for greenhouse gas emissions in the from the above perspective, highlighting the importance of EDGAR v5.0 inventory; global uncertainties for CH4 emissions mitigation in particular sectors regardless of the uncertainties from the IPCC sectors are presented in Table 2.6.