cover image: HIGHER FOR LONGER: STRUCTURAL INFLATION AND REAL RATE TRENDS IN THE 2020S

20.500.12592/w8p567

HIGHER FOR LONGER: STRUCTURAL INFLATION AND REAL RATE TRENDS IN THE 2020S

8 Mar 2023

Moreover, the baby the Trump Administration and Brexit in 2016, boom-driven increase in workers in advanced and accelerated strongly with pandemic-driven economies from the mid-1960s through the supply chain problems and the war in Ukraine. [...] The rise of globalization in goods and services was crucially dependent upon the dominance Admittedly, the impact on globalization of the of neoliberal policy from the 1980s until the rise of US industrial policy and neoliberalism’s GFC. [...] Through very in the 2020s for savings and investment26 relative early 2023, the speed and size of the BoC and Fed’s to the 1990s to 2010s. [...] Their stance reflects The BoC views the neutral rate as “a medium-to the uncertainty over the lags and ultimate impacts long-run concept that evolves in response to slow- of tightening in 2022 and the serious problems of moving foreign and domestic factors, including models in estimating growth, inflation, and jobs demographic trends, the rate of technological during 2020-2022. [...] The restoration and real rates this decade are also problematic for of policy rates to the 4% range recalibrated debt gauging and using the neutral rate to assess current yields globally, including the striking end to trillions policy and in determining the optimal policy setting of dollars of negative-yielding debt by December after the peak in policy rate hikes is reached.
Pages
23
Published in
Canada

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