Grid-Locked - Risks of unabated gas-fired electricity for a clean grid in Alberta

We respectfully acknowledge the space our organization is headquartered in as the traditional and ancestral territories of the Blackfoot Confederacy, comprised of the bands Siksika, Piikani, and Kainai, the Îyârhe Nakoda Nations, including the bands of Goodstoney, Chiniki, and Bearspaw, and the Tsuut’ina Dené. [...] The province has retired nearly 87% (5.4 GW) of its coal capacity since 2015, with the rest being on track to be converted to natural gas by the middle of next year — six years ahead of the 2030 phaseout goal.1,2 During the same period, wind and solar capacity has expanded to 4.3 GW and 1.4 GW respectively,3 with an additional 1.7 GW of wind and 1.7 GW of solar under construction.4 This benefits A. [...] We examine the trends in gas-fired capacity, and explore the impacts of gas generation on grid affordability, reliability and effectiveness on the path to net-zero electricity emissions by 2035. [...] In 2022, gas-fired electricity emitted an estimated 22.8 Mt of emissions in Alberta, including behind-the-fence generation.39 Three plausible scenarios for a 2035 electricity system in Alberta, based on existing capacity, expected buildout of gas assets, and the current proposed frame for the federal Clean Electricity Regulations, are illustrated in Figure 5. [...] The recently announced draft CER introduced an emissions standard of 30 t/GWh that will apply to emitting electricity starting in 2035.47 In setting this emissions limit, the CER encourages the application of CCS in gas-fired facilities by providing certainty to generators that Canada is committed to achieve a net-zero grid.