Russian Geopolitical Objectives in the Current Oil Price Crisis and the Implications for Canada

Their partnership deepened to the extent that the Kremlin excused some of Saudi Arabia’s recent dirty deeds, while the Saudis began making overtures to draw the Russians away from Iran in the Middle East. [...] Thus, Russia believes the oil price collapse is cyclical and temporary, that the country’s Stabilization Fund will allow it to weather the storm and that it has the stronger negotiating position. [...] The arrangements agreed to at this meeting made the Kingdom the main supplier of oil to the U. S. in exchange for Washington guaranteeing its security. [...] On the other hand, Saudi Arabia – as an informal leader of OPEC – has far greater responsibilities to its members (including the need to balance the oil market) than Russia, which means that Moscow has room to maneuver, while Riyadh’s freedom of action is constrained by its position within the organization and related obligations to its members. [...] Both older Russians (who remember the dire economic conditions of the 1980s and 1990s) and younger ones (affected by the consequences of the post-2014 economic sanctions) can adjust to aggravating economic conditions.