IM_Dan_2022_0817.pub

IM_Dan_2022_0817.pub Intelligence Memos From: Dan Ci uriak To: Canadians Concerned about Ukraine Date: August 17, 2022 Re: Counting the Cost (IV) – The Cumulative Global Economic Cost of the War We conclude our series on the economic costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by summarizing the bill that should be sent to the Kremlin. [...] For the rest of the world, the war has meant sharply higher energy and food costs, higher interest rates, and reduced business and consumer confidence, leading to a reduction in economic growth and a sharper correction in equity markets than was anticipated based on the expected withdrawal of pandemic-related stimulus. [...] Meanwhile in Europe, millions of people report high levels of anxiety about war on their doorstep and the impact on food and energy prices, which impacts particularly severely on the most vulnerable segment of the population – the old and the poor. [...] The high end of costs of stress to the rest of the European population and famine costs in Africa would add another US$1.8 trillion to the tab. [...] This does not include the incalculable costs of the disruption of global efforts to address climate change, the welfare costs of the loss of the “peace dividend” through the now unavoidable step increase in the share of global expenditure going to defense, and the negative impact on the efficiency of the global economy from the reduction in trade and investment due to heightened political risk.